Indian Americans watch the Presidential debate on television in Jersey City in New Jersey on Sept. 30. In what was one of the most substantive Presidential debates in recent history, President George Bush and Senator John Kerry went toe to toe in what most analysts believe was a gainful exchange for Kerry. Indian Americans seemed to largely fall into partisan positions. (Photo: Mohammed Jaffer/SnapsIndia)

A participant at a recent Indian-American event asked why he should bother to vote. He said that with so many millions of people voting, what difference could his lone vote make? He added that polls predict the outcome anyway, so the result will be pretty well predictable, without his involvement.

He raised two important questions that deserve an answer, especially as his concerns appear to reflect those of a majority of Indian Americans.

As this study points out, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2002, only 37.8 percent of Indian Americans who are of voting age voted in the last election. This contrasts with 46.2 percent of the general public that was eligible to vote and actually did cast ballots. While 2002 was an “off-year,” meaning there was no presidential race, one-third of all 100 Senates seats and all 435 Congressional seats were on the ballots, as well as numerous state and local races and innumerable referendum.

In fact, Indian-American voter turnout in 2002 merely continued a trend of lower than average voter turnout. As the IACPA study points out, since 1994, between 32.3 percent and 54.1 percent of eligible Indian Americans voted in each election, compared with 46.2 percent and 59.5 percent of the general population. The study also concludes that less than two-thirds of eligible Indian Americans have even bothered to register to vote. Thus, the gentleman’s question of “why bother” reflects a wider number of people than just this individual.

The obvious answer is that the results of elections affect every aspect of ones lives, from domestic issues such as how local schools are run to what taxes individuals and small businesses must pay as well as international issues including America’s relations with India and Pakistan and how we should wage the war against terrorism.

Equally important, politicians often sift through election results to see how much support they received –– or did not receive –– from specific communities. Such support is not only measured in contributions, it is also a reflection of the size of voter support from definable communities. Thus, if Indian Americans want to know how they can have their views heard by elected officials, the simple answer is to vote for them and then to follow-up with occasional letters, phone calls and e-mails.

There is another reason why every eligible citizen should exercise their basic right to vote, namely American elections have frequently been remarkably close and often have been decided by extremely narrow margins.

Certainly this is the case in state and local elections, where the ultimate voter pool is relatively small, but it is even the case in national elections.

The structure of America’s two party system and the various historical divisions on key issues has resulted in many elections being extremely close and competitive. In six presidential elections, the popular vote margin between the winner and the runner up was less than 1 percent!

If just one more person in each of the approximately 170,000 electoral districts in the country had voted for Richard Nixon in 1960, John F. Kennedy would have lost the popular vote, which he only won by 118,574 votes. In other words, slightly less than one person per precinct could have reversed the outcome in 1960.

The last American presidential race raises even more familiar proof of the need for everyone to cast his or her ballots. Then Vice President Al Gore won in New Mexico by only 337 votes –– statewide. On the other hand, he lost in Florida by only 537 votes out of the millions cast. As it was, Gore won the overall popular vote, but lost to George W. Bush in the Electoral College by one vote. The legal challenges resulting from that election led to a 5-4 Supreme Court decision in favor of Bush.

The gentleman’s second question, dealing with polling data, also should be addressed.

When President Harry Truman was nominated by the Democratic Party in 1948 to run for re-election, he was asked how concerned he was about polls showing him far behind Republican nominee Thomas E. Dewey, the moderate, popular governor of the largest state in the union, New York. Truman certainly faced a daunting challenge. Polls showed that a majority of Americans were tired of being governed by Democratic presidents, as had been the case for the previous 16 years.

Furthermore, Truman was the victim of major rifts within his own party. Liberal Democrats rallied around the candidacy of former Vice President Henry Wallace, who was disgruntled at not having received the Democratic nomination and formed a new “Progressive Party.” Conservative, mostly Southern, Democrats also deserted the main Democratic Party. These so-called “Dixiecrats” nominated South Carolina Governor J. Strom Thurmond as their candidate for the newly created “States Rights Party”.

A party is frequently doomed when it splits in half; this time the Democrats had split three ways. Political pundits predicted that Truman could not win without the liberal and conservative wings of his own party, and even with them, he was behind in “head-to-head” polls with Dewey. Some newspapers were so convinced of the accuracy of their polls that they even printed banner headlines trumpeting Dewey’s victory –– before the final votes were counted.

Truman calmly responded that the only polls that matter were at the polling places when the American people would cast their ballots. Despite the polling data, Truman defeated Dewey by 303 –– 189 electoral votes (Thurmond received 39).

The lesson for all Americans, including Indian Americans, is that the only poll that counts takes place on election day, in this year on Nov. 2, and that the key to political success for the community at large is for every Indian American to register and to vote for the candidate of their choice.

(Ralph Nurnberger is a Washington Associate of the Indian American Center for Political Awareness (IACPA). He is also a professor at Georgetown University and a Partner in Nurnberger & Associates in Washington, D.C.)