Democratic Presidential candidate Senator John Kerry, left, and President George W. Bush, ahead of their third and final debate at Tempe, AZ, on Oct. 14. (Photo: AFP)

Let us take a look at the future shape of the India-United States relationship and the possible challenges which lie ahead. What can be the bumps on the road?

The immediate challenge is posed by the U.S. presidential elections next week. Every election raises concerns about continuity and change in policies. What are the possible gains and losses for India from a Kerry Presidency or a second Bush Administration?

Sen. John Kerry as President will bring a gust of fresh air to U.S. foreign policy. He will endeavor to restore the international credibility of the U.S., build a strong coalition for stability in Iraq and revive the stalled Middle East peace process. Kerry will give the United Nations its rightful role in global peace and stability.

There is less certainty on how much attention Kerry will pay to bilateral relations with India.

Kerry visited India in December 1999 to participate in the World Economic Forum’s India Economic Summit. In a recent interview, he affirmed that he would “recognize the vital global role India will play in the 21st Century.” He said that he would work closely with India “to strengthen a relationship built on shared values and interests.” Kerry said he will, as President, give India the attention it deserves. He added that he will take a firm line on cross-border terrorism. “The support Pakistan has given,” he said, “to terrorist actions in Kashmir –– official or unofficial –– must cease.”

It is, however, not the generalities, but the specifics of Kerry’s thinking in India which merits critical attention. His comments on non-proliferation and outsourcing, two issues of vital importance to India have been far from reassuring.

Asked about India’s eligibility for permanent membership of the Security Council, Kerry’s reply was that India would have to sign the NPT first. This reflects a nuclear fundamentalism, which is more stringent than fellow Democrat Bill Clinton’s policy towards India.

Kerry and President George W. Bush have taken sharply different stands on international trade and outsourcing. For a liberal Democrat who has been a lifelong champion of free trade, Kerry’s campaign rhetoric has been surprisingly protectionist. He has launched a tirade against American companies which outsource their business and has threatened to cancel their tax and other benefits. He has also asked for labor and environment issues to be included in the Doha Round –– which will deal a mortal blow to the already feeble multilateral round of negotiations.

There is above all a question mark on whether Kerry will continue the strategic partnership with India initiated by Bush. Asked for his comments on the Next Steps in the Strategic Partnership (NSSP), Kerry was ambiguous, saying that NSSP has been more talk than action. It is likely that, if elected, he will review the NSSP. Hopefully, he will not reverse it.

Four more years of George Bush will, on the other hand, consolidate the strategic partnership. While proliferation issues will remain on the agenda, there will be a growing acceptance of India’s nuclear status, even a possible accommodation of India as a nuclear weapon state without formally signing the NPT.

There will be a progressive relaxation of the residual original restrictions on U.S. export of sensitive technology.

The India-U.S. strategic partnership will move into Phase II and beyond, based on rising levels of trust on both sides. A friendly Republican Administration will be reassuring for U.S. companies seeking to invest in India.

On the political side, the dialogue will continue at the highest levels. Bush has already indicated that if elected, he would welcome the Indian prime minister as one of his earliest foreign guests in Washington. He has also conveyed his eagerness to visit India as early as possible.

On the negative side, there are the prospects of continuing turmoil and violence in Iraq; the festering conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians; doubts about the direction in which President Bush will take the war against terrorism; and the emasculation of the role of the U.N.

In our neighborhood, it is likely that the military regime of Gen. Musharraf will continue to be propped up, leading to uncertainty regarding the restoration of democracy in Pakistan. There will be no guarantee that Bush will do what Kerry has promised to do –– to press Pakistan to completely turn off the tap of terrorism against India.

Both the candidates have positives and negatives from India’s point of view. Ideally, of course, the next U.S. president should combine the bilateralism of Bush with the multilateralism of Kerry. Beyond this, India should happily accept the verdict of the American citizens on Nov. 2.

(The writers is a former Indian ambassador in Washington. Reproduced with permission from his speech on ‘India and the U.S. – The Challenges of a Strategic Partnership,’ delivered at the India International Center on Oct. 26)