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Elections 2004: Analyst’s View
Bush or Kerry, Manmohan Singh government is ready to do business

By Rajiv Desai

All my friends in America, who are accomplished professionals, are viscerally opposed to George W. Bush. They are all upper middle-class liberals, who also hate the saffron hordes in India. On the other hand, the creamy layer of Indians in America –– rich doctors and businessmen –– generally plumps for Bush simply because he wants to cut taxes for the wealthy. Then, there are the information technology (IT) millionaires, who fear Kerry will upset their outsourcing applecart. Their various business process outsourcing (BPO) and call center ventures may see a downturn if Kerry comes to power because he proposes to use tax laws to discourage American companies from disinvesting in the U.S. to create jobs in India.

In general, without the benefit of any survey research, I would venture to say that the vast majority of Indians in America either favor Bush strongly or really don’t care, which translates to lukewarm support for Bush.

At the same time, American diplomats in India are ardent champions of the growing economic, military and diplomatic ties with India. Increasingly, they have become more sensitive to local political reality. Many contentious issues, such as India’s nuclear program, have been put on the back burner. Other issues have been addressed with finesse.

Faced with criticism about delays in issuing visas, the local mission has worked to speed up the process at the urging of their political and commercial section chiefs.

More important, American officials in India have mounted a major operation to promote the new engagement with India, as articulated in the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) doctrine by the U.S. government. They are at pains to convince opinion makers that the NSSP is immune to any regime change in Washington. In the 16 years I have lived in Delhi, I have never seen such ardent advocacy of stronger ties with India by U.S. officials.

Between the goodwill expressed by American diplomats in India and sections of the new government, there remains the issue of abiding anti-American sentiment. I have always been struck by this duplicitous phenomenon. Several years ago, a survey showed that a majority of senior diplomats, bureaucrats and members of the academy and the media, not to mention the vast middle class, had their children either studying in America or working for major American multinational firms.

Nevertheless, there is a growing feeling that India needs to engage America. I used to believe that Indian antipathy to America is deep-rooted and therefore the relationship between the two countries was doomed. Not any more. Americans are looking to India not in misty spiritual ways or as a basket case. Many enlightened Americans see India as a partner in prosperity. Equally, India’s elite is reviewing its anti-American stance.

Slowly but surely, Indo-U.S. ties are maturing. They began in the late 1960’s, when Indian middle class youth made their way to America. Today, the Indian presence in America has changed. A new generation is in flower and its links with India are tenuous. It responds to the Bush-Kerry rivalry as Americans rather than Indians and its vote will be determined in large part by its assessment of Bush or Kerry as the right choice for America, never mind India.

Even in India, things have changed. Ideological zealots, who have traditionally dictated negative opinions about America, no longer have the same sway over public opinion. Increasingly, Indian opinion holds that the rivalry between Bush and Kerry is a local American issue. For its part, the Manmohan Singh government is sure it can do business with either of them and thereby respect the American electoral verdict.

(The writer, who has lived and worked in the U.S., is CEO of IPAN, a public affairs consultancy)



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