Professor Tad Murty, senior research scientist is in-charge of the research component of Canada’s Tsunami Warning System.

Deaths (in South Asia) could have been completely avoided. The destruction could not be avoided, it could have been minimized. But deaths could have been if there was a tsunami warning system for the Indian Ocean.

The only ocean basin for which there is a tsunami warning system is for the Pacific Ocean and that is due to the United Nations and the United States. In 1948, the U.S. started the system and then the UN brought in many member nations. And there are many 24-hour warning centers in Hawaii and elsewhere.

You need three components to build a warning system –– 1. a set of seismographs to detect the earthquake in real time; 2. a tide-gauge network to be able to monitor in real time how the waves are progressing and how fast they are, and how many waves, because usually the first wave is not the largest; and 3. computers from which we have to develop a set of models as to how many waves will be generated and how fast they will propagate and how high they will be.

A man carries a tsunami victim to a mass burial site at Silver Beach in Cuddalore on Dec. 27. (Photo: AFP)

All this could be done in advance. We have to have a warning system and the most ideal place in India would be in Vizag in Andhra Pradesh in my view. And what you need is people working in shifts –– a seismologist, an oceanographer, and a computer modeler. They should be available on eight-hour shifts so that the center is always So when an earthquake happens, these people will know and they can quickly look up the model results done earlier and determine how high the waves will be and how high and when they will arrive in India and then could alert the various local and national authorities and NGOs to notify people on the ground.

The reason such a big tragedy happened is because no country in the Indian Ocean had this kind of center.

The reason for the apathy in the Indian Ocean countries is mainly because it happens so rarely. This apathy is not just in India but also other Indian Ocean countries. Whenever I go to India I mention the need to my colleagues, but they always say –– “Yes, but it doesn’t happen so frequently and there are other issues.” I get the same response when I go to Sri Lanka, or even Australia. Scientists feel they may not be able to put enough pressure on their government to get the kind of funding, that they don’t have enough clout.

It is not something that I want to blame on the government or hold the governments responsible for. It is human to deal with more immediate problems. I have never been to any international meeting where any Indian government official has spoken against having such a system.

People gather around the body of a child at Silver Beach in Cuddalore on Dec. 27.(Photo: AFP)

Even in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and elsewhere, we have called for a tsunami warning system, but it has not come about. Lot of computer modeling may have been done for the Atlantic Ocean, but not a real-time warning system. Tsunami is a very frequent happening only in the Pacific Ocean.

When I say rare in the Indian Ocean –– the last time in India it was in 1945 on Nov. 27 when there was a major earthquake just south of Karachi, near the border with Iran, in the ocean. It created a huge tidal wave that propagated all along the coast of India almost to Karwar, but not down to Kerala. The highest altitude of the wave was in the Gulf of Cambay, north of Mumbai. The reason was the wave came in at the time of high-tide, and the Gulf is like a triangle, and amplified it –– we call it resonance amplification –– so that’s why even though it was only a couple of meters in the ocean, in the Gulf it became 11.8 meters high.

Then the major one before that was on Aug. 27, 1883 when a big volcano, the Krakatoa, blew up in the Sundas Straits between Java and Sumatra. At that time the tsunami killed 36,000 people generally. It affected places like Chennai, Andaman and Nicobar. We do not have the precise number of deaths.

Coming back to the question of why there is no warning system in the Indian Ocean, it is because the big events are so rare. I guess governments are always more caught up with more urgent issues.

People grieve after witnessing bodies being placed at a mass burial site in Cuddalore on Dec. 27. (Photo: AFP)

What has to happen is this –– India of course being a very major country in the area, needs to take a lead, set up a committee of the Indian Ocean countries. And it could be done under the United Nations umbrella. That would be better. My feeling is if these countries approach the UN, they could get funding from the UNDP.

What I see is the first step is to set up a committee of scientists from the Indian Ocean countries, made up of seismologists and oceanographers. They need to determine how many seismographs and tide-gauges should be set up around the Ocean. I am very much involved with the Pacific Ocean. We have dozens of them. Same way, we should have several dozen seismographs situated in Australia down to India and to the East Coast of Africa.

The modeling can be done in India since it is so scientifically advanced. Then each country must determine the location of the centers. In India the best place is Vizag. And should be connected by satellite and be 24/7 available.